U.S. equities oscillated forward this month amid the resonance between interest rate cut stimulus and rising concerns over an AI bubble. The Federal Reserve cut rates as scheduled in December, remaining short-term liquidity accommodative, though inflation worries led to significant divergence over the number of rate cuts expected in 2026. In AI, after a continuous rally, the market has turned more selective, focusing more on the practical progress of AI applications and ROI. We believe AI is not

Global equity assets generally saw a correction this month, with the technology sector being particularly hard-hit. Discussions around an “AI bubble” have also heated up again. We believe the current correction is primarily driven by the diminished cost-effectiveness of the technology sector after its significant prior gains, where most individual stocks have stretched valuations and need a moderate pullback to attract new capital inflows. There is no full - scale bubble in the AI sector as a w…

The U.S. and Chinese markets continued their volatile upward trend this month. At the beginning of the month, trade and technology frictions between the two countries intensified, but as the summit between the two heads of state took place, both sides reached short-term compromises, including mutual tariff reductions and a relaxation of export controls on rare earths. Our fundamental assessment of U.S.–China relations is that they will “compete without breaking” — while the two sides are unli…

Chinese equities recorded modest gains in September with limited volatility, supported by steady domestic fund inflows. The overall economy continued its gradual recovery trend, underpinned by improving confidence and resilient consumption. Within the market, technology and non-ferrous metal sectors outperformed. The semiconductor industry saw further breakthroughs, with progress evident across the supply chain. Domestic chip production is expected to expand meaningfully over the next three year

In August, the U.S. stock market entered a consolidation phase following previous gains, as investors awaited further guidance from upcoming economic data and monetary policy decisions. We anticipate that interest rate cuts will commence in September. Given the resilience of the U.S. economy, this round of rate cuts is more likely to be a preemptive measure, which should have a positive impact on U.S. equities. Corporates continue to increase investments in AI, which has begun contributing posit

Global markets experienced broad gains in July, driven primarily by the better-than-expected performance of major AI companies and abundant market liquidity. A review of the earnings reports of key AI companies in the US reveals the following key insights: 1) Leading firms are committed to maintaining high levels of investment in AI infrastructure going forward; 2) AI has effectively fueled revenue growth in sectors such as advertising and search; 3) Companies have managed to sustain stable prof

In June, major indices in both China and the U.S. posted gains. The recent talks between China and the U.S. in London further clarified the framework for the tariff agreement, suggesting that the trade war is unlikely to escalate further. It is expected that both countries will ease certain restrictions on rare earths and technology over the coming months, which will boost market risk appetite and shift market opportunities toward AI computing power and applications. Currently, the U.S. remains

The U.S. and China reached a new tariff agreement in Switzerland, significantly reducing certain bilateral tariffs. As we previously noted, the U.S.-China relationship resembles a marriage: frequent friction persists, but acomplete decoupling remains unlikely in the near term. While uncertainties around future tariff policies may linger (potentially impacting U.S. inflation and Chinese exports), we assess that the overall shock to China’s export sector will remain manageable. With the tariff war