Keywise Market Comment (Nov 2024)

2024-12-09
凯思博 139

Trump's victory in the election, along with tax cuts and the appreciation of the US dollar, has significantly contributed to the continued growth of the US stock market. Following substantial investments in computational power, we anticipate that AI applications will gradually become more prevalent, progressively boosting revenue in the coming years. Many of our selected assets are already benefiting from this trend. The US economy remains robust, and with interest rate cuts and potential future tax reductions, we expect sustained economic growth.

Regarding Chinese assets, concerns over tariffs and the ongoing depreciation of the renminbi have introduced volatility and pullbacks in both Hong Kong and A-shares. However, we believe the long-term impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy will be less severe than current market pessimism suggests. Firstly, interest rate hikes are unlikely to occur all at once. Secondly, the share of US exports to China has decreased, and domestic export industries have diversified their operations to mitigate risks. Additionally, many domestic companies may still find opportunities to invest in the US. In response to tariff impacts, domestic policies are increasingly focusing on stimulating domestic demand to offset any negative effects from exports.

Regarding the Chinese economy, we began to see signs of gradual recovery in October and November. With continued policy stimulation, we expect the performance of listed companies to improve after the second quarter of next year. For Chinese assets, the pace of domestic economic and technological development will remain a key factor. Policymakers have shifted their objectives toward stimulating the economy and addressing challenges in the real estate and local debt sectors. Furthermore, fiscal stimulus is now primarily directed towards enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting consumption. This shift is more critical than the precise scale of the stimulus itself. The current low valuation of Chinese assets already accounts for a significant amount of pessimistic expectations. Our investment focus will primarily target AI hardware and applications, the internet, consumer electronics, semiconductors, as well as discretionary consumption and related sectors.