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11 2024.11
Keywise Market Comment (Oct 2024)
In October, global markets entered the earnings season. Onshore Market:In the Chinese market, third-quarter earnings reports indicate a further economic slowdown. However, this has been largely priced into the market, with valuations reflecting lower levels. The market’s focus has now shifted to potential upcoming fiscal stimulus policies. Following the surge at the end of September, the market may need time to digest current valuations and wait for a recovery in fundamentals or clearer policy … -
11 2024.10
Keywise Market Comment (Sep 2024)
Onshore Market:In September, China market experienced great changes, and relevant index took a V-shaped rebound. During the first half of the month, the index fell sharply as a reflection of an ongoing economic slowdown and lowering expectations for policy stimulus. Starting from September 24, government introduced a package of stimulus policies, including monetary easing, increasing fiscal expenditure promoting domestic demand, issuing special treasury bonds, and striving to resolve local gover -
06 2024.09
Keywise Market Comment (Aug 2024)
Onshore Market:We notice that China economy continued declining on a month-to-month basis, 1) Consumption and investment remained deteriorating 2) M1 shrank largely 3) PMI maintained under 50%. All these indicated a deficient demand and deflationary pressure for China economy. We expect government will introduce polices to simulate demand, however, which remains uncertain.Offshore Market:US economic growth is slowing. We expect more volatility in US market because of the high valuation and mark… -
05 2024.08
Keywise Market Comment (Jul 2024)
In July, China market continued to show a downward trend. Although the economy as a whole was moving towards recovery, most industries experienced a decline compared to the previous month, only exports and certain manufacturing sectors performing better than expected. In July, The Third Plenum of the 20th CCP Central Committee concluded and largely in line with market expectation. the Party leadership required implementations to enhance the fiscal capacity of local governments, stabilize the dom -
16 2024.07
Keywise Market Comment (Jun 2024)
AI industry sector continued outperforming with US strong economic and market liquidity. While China market was sluggish. Property sales, consumer and investment were all below market expectation, despite exports remained strong. Also, we noticed that fiscal and monetary policies support to the economy was lower than expected. Dividend strategy continued to outperform the market as a defense-oriented strategy.Our investment strategy focuses on these aspects: Firstly, we think small-and-mid-cap s -
03 2024.06
Keywise Market Comment (May 2024)
At the economic level, the overall weak recovery trend continues. Export and manufacturing investment performed stronger than property sector. Consumption is relatively stable. In terms of policy, we expect the upcoming third Plenum of the Central Committee will introduce major reform measures. The policy will focus on reshaping the relations of production and strive to establish a new type of production relations that can adapt to the development of new quality productive forces. We will pay cl -
03 2024.05
Keywise Market Comment (April 2024)
In April, Most US tech companies’ earnings came in line with or miss market expectations, US market fluctuated together with the above-trend inflation, but we still believe in the trend of AI. While in China market we noticed better than expectations earning results in several industry, e.g. export, Internet, and new energy vehicle. Though tech firms’ results were below expectation. April also witnessed a notable rebound in Hong Kong market. We expect the rally will continue as there are severa… -
03 2024.04
Keywise Market Comment (March 2024)
For global market, we noticed global PMI index reached 50.3%, indicating that the US and world economy is still expanding. Prices of copper and other non-ferrous metal keep rising.We expect copper to make further highs over the coming quarters, due to the accelerated investment in grid system and manufacturing. Considering the strong economic and employment Indicators, we forecast federal reserve’s timing for monetary easing will be delayed.For domestic market, exports and high-end manufacturing